The war in Ukraine may go on until Putin dies, says global affairs analyst based in Odessa

“We feel like history is repeating itself.”

Michael Bociurkiw, a Canadian of Ukrainian heritage, finds that the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia was foreshadowed by scenes from his childhood, when tensions between the two sides were already strong.

“I never learned how to play hockey, I was too busy being Ukrainian… it meant protesting in front of the Russian embassy, saying ‘KGB — Set Them Free’ or ‘Free Ukrainian Prisoners of Conscience,’” he explained.

Bociurkiw, a journalist-turned-global-affairs-analyst who has been based in Ukraine since before the Russian invasion in February 2022, first went to Ukraine more than 30 years ago as a reporter for The South China Morning Post.

In a discussion at an October 3 FCC Club Lunch with Correspondent Board Governor Jennifer Jett, he explained what he thinks may happen with the coming U.S. election and Russia’s inability to accept Ukraine as an independent nation.

With the conflict approaching the end of its third year, neither Russia nor Ukraine appears willing to negotiate. But Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting Russia’s aggression depends on continued support from its allies, particularly the U.S.

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September, which Bociurkiw attended, world leaders were unenthused about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “victory plan.” Zelenskyy also sought U.S. approval to send long-range missiles deep into Russian territory, which he says will be a game-changer in the war.

Bociurkiw echoed skepticism from U.S. officials as to how much difference those long-range weapons would make.

“It’s not enough to push the Russians back completely,” he said.

Russia also shows no signs of giving up after already taking over parts of Donetsk, Kharkiv and other Ukrainian regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow will make “no concessions” to end the war.

Since Bociurkiw’s event at the FCC, there have been reports of North Korean troops training alongside Russian soldiers for possible deployment in Ukraine, signaling the lengths that Putin is willing to go to in order to win.

“I could see this war keeping on until Putin dies, whenever that happens,” Bociurkiw said.

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